{"id":10322,"date":"2025-04-11T23:27:54","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T13:57:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vietleadershipcoach.com\/?p=10322"},"modified":"2025-04-11T23:27:54","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T13:57:54","slug":"when-artificial-intelligence-gets-real","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/leehopkins.com\/vi\/when-artificial-intelligence-gets-real\/","title":{"rendered":"When artificial intelligence gets real"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"nfd-container nfd-text-md nfd-wb-text__text-1 wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-2a06cc65 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"nfd-max-w-prose wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\" style=\"margin-top:0;margin-right:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-left:0\">A coastal property stand-off recently landed on my kitchen table. A friend\u2019s parents own a modest beach bungalow in an aging community\u2014the sort of place where brick pathways meander through palms like a 1970s Gold Coast development frozen in time, and not much has changed since Gough Whitlam was the Prime Minister. While gleaming high-rises have sprouted nearby over decades, the original buildings have persisted, protected by a rather brilliant governance structure requiring 80% owner agreement for any sale. Anyone who\u2019s ever chaired a body corporate meeting knows getting 80% of Australians to agree on anything is about as likely as finding a cold and empty spot on Bondi Beach in January.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">But recently, a property developer made headway by targeting individual owners with attractive offers, then tabling a surprisingly generous proposal for the entire complex. The place erupted into debate\u2014Was the offer fair dinkum? How might negotiations unfold? Who stood to benefit most?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">To assist my friend\u2019s parents through this property puzzle, I turned to ChatGPT 4.5\u2014not the free version that fumbles like a first-grade footballer, but the premium \u2018pro\u2019 tier that costs about the same as a decent bottle of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.danmurphys.com.au\/search?searchTerm=Lisa+Mcguigan\">Lisa Mcguigan Silver Pinot Grigio<\/a> each week. This version includes a \u2018deep research\u2019 capability allowing the AI to spend up to half an hour exploring online sources before synthesising findings. I requested an evaluation of the offer and, astonishingly, received a comprehensive analysis within three minutes. Over the course of our conversation, I refined my questions while the AI adjusted its assessment accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">The verdict? The offer undervalued the property. The AI had uncovered comparable nearby sales commanding higher prices, including one property that had been zoned upwards post-purchase, dramatically increasing its development potential and true market value. The negotiation dynamics proved particularly fascinating\u2014the AI outlined how developers might secure majority ownership to control the body corporate, then implement burdensome rules or special levies designed to pressure remaining owners to sell. Yet this strategy created vulnerability: \u2018They\u2019ll own half a non-redevelopable complex\u2014meaning their investment sits in limbo\u2019, it observed. \u2018Their financing partners will grow increasingly nervous\u2019. If just 21% of owners maintained their resolve, they could force developers to \u2018bleed cash\u2019 until a more generous offer materialised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">I forwarded this analysis to my friend\u2019s parents with qualified enthusiasm. A property solicitor might have provided more nuanced counsel\u2014but not in three minutes, and certainly not for $200. The AI contained a few factual errors regarding property dimensions, but immediately corrected them when I pointed them out. While I regularly use ChatGPT for various tasks\u2014teaching myself about scientific concepts, configuring an old computer for a neighbour\u2019s six-year-old\u2019s robotics projects, even experimenting with fan fiction based on profiles I\u2019ve written\u2014this property consultation felt fundamentally different. Here was an AI helping solve a genuine, complex, financially significant problem with remarkable practicality and business acumen. The system demonstrated a savviness I\u2019d previously associated exclusively with human experience. Despite following AI developments closely for nearly two years, this moment landed differently. Strewth, I thought. \u2018This isn\u2019t theoretical anymore\u2014it\u2019s properly arrived\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The complicated dance of technological scepticism<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Most Australians don\u2019t know quite how seriously to take artificial intelligence. This ambivalence stems partly from the technology\u2019s novelty and partly from the deafening hype surrounding it. Resisting the sales pitch makes sense when forecasting technological futures remains notoriously challenging. But the contrarian dismissal that inevitably follows overblown promises doesn\u2019t necessarily illuminate matters either. In 1879, <em>The Times<\/em> published a multi-part front-page investigation titled \u2018EDISON\u2019S ELECTRIC LIGHT\u2014CONFLICTING STATEMENTS AS TO ITS UTILITY\u2019. The paper quoted a distinguished engineer\u2014president of the Stevens Institute of Technology\u2014who objected to \u2018trumpeting the result of Edison\u2019s experiments in electric lighting as a wonderful success\u2019. His scepticism wasn\u2019t unreasonable; inventors had failed to create functional light bulbs for decades. His anti-hype position would have proven correct in countless other situations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">AI hype has spawned two distinctive forms of counter-narrative. The first suggests the technology will soon reach its ceiling: perhaps AI will continue struggling with forward planning or explicit logical reasoning rather than intuitive pattern-matching. According to this perspective, we require additional breakthroughs before achieving what researchers term \u2018artificial general intelligence\u2019 or AGI\u2014roughly human-equivalent intellectual capability and autonomy. The second counter-narrative emphasises real-world implementation challenges: even if remarkably intelligent AI helps design a superior electrical grid, convincing people to build it represents an entirely different challenge. This view holds that progress inevitably encounters bottlenecks that\u2014to some people\u2019s relief\u2014will moderate AI\u2019s integration into our social fabric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">These perspectives sound persuasive and encourage a comfortable wait-and-see attitude. Yet they find little support in \u2018<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/4j8zsJk\">The Scaling Era: An Oral History of AI, 2019-2025<\/a><\/strong>\u2018, a comprehensive and revealing collection of interview excerpts with AI insiders compiled by podcaster Dwarkesh Patel. This twenty-four-year-old interviewing phenomenon has built an impressive audience by posing detailed technical questions that most commentators wouldn\u2019t know how to formulate. In \u2018The Scaling Era\u2019, Patel weaves multiple interviews into a cohesive narrative of AI\u2019s trajectory. The title references the \u2018scaling hypothesis\u2019\u2014the notion that simply making AI systems larger creates substantially greater intelligence. The evidence increasingly suggests this approach works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Virtually no one interviewed in \u2018The Scaling Era\u2019\u2014from corporate leaders like Mark Zuckerberg to frontline engineers and analysts\u2014anticipates AI development plateauing. Quite the opposite: nearly everyone notes its surprisingly rapid improvement, with many predicting AGI could emerge by 2030 or earlier. Nor does societal complexity appear to discourage most experts. Many researchers express confidence that the next generation of AI systems, likely arriving within months, will enable widespread adoption of automated cognitive labour, initiating technological acceleration with profound economic and geopolitical implications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">The text-based nature of AI chatbots has made it relatively straightforward to envision applications in writing, legal work, education, customer service and other language-centred domains. Yet this isn\u2019t necessarily where AI developers focus their primary attention. \u2018One of the first jobs to be automated is going to be an AI researcher or engineer\u2019, Leopold Aschenbrenner, formerly an alignment researcher at OpenAI, tells Patel. Aschenbrenner\u2014Columbia University\u2019s valedictorian at nineteen in 2021, who mentions studying economic growth \u2018in a previous life\u2019\u2014explains that if technology companies assemble teams of AI \u2018researchers\u2019, and those researchers identify methods to enhance AI intelligence, the result could trigger an intelligence-feedback loop. \u2018Things can start going very fast\u2019, Aschenbrenner warns. Automated researchers might expand into fields like robotics; if one nation establishes a lead over others in such capabilities, he argues, this \u2018could be decisive in, say, military competition\u2019. He suggests we might eventually confront scenarios where governments contemplate launching missiles at data centres apparently approaching \u2018superintelligence\u2019\u2014AI substantially smarter than humans. \u2018We\u2019re basically going to be in a position where we\u2019re protecting data centres with the threat of nuclear retaliation\u2019, Aschenbrenner concludes. \u2018Maybe that sounds kind of crazy\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">This represents the most extreme scenario\u2014but even conservative projections remain striking. Economist Tyler Cowen adopts a comparatively measured view: he favours the \u2018life is complicated\u2019 perspective and suggests our world contains numerous problems that remain unsolvable regardless of computational intelligence. He notes that researcher numbers have already increased globally\u2014\u2019China, India, and South Korea recently brought scientific talent into the world economy\u2019\u2014without creating profound, science-fiction-level technological transformation. Instead, Cowen anticipates AI might usher in innovation comparable to mid-twentieth century developments, when, as Patel characterises it, humanity progressed \u2018from V2 rockets to the Moon landing in a couple of decades\u2019. This might appear relatively restrained\u2014and compared to Aschenbrenner\u2019s forecast, it certainly is. However, consider what those decades delivered: nuclear weapons, satellites, jet travel, the Green Revolution, computers, open-heart surgery, and DNA discovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Ilya Sutskever, former chief scientist at OpenAI, offers perhaps the most guarded perspective in the book; when Patel asks when he anticipates AGI\u2019s arrival, Sutskever responds, \u2018I hesitate to give you a number\u2019. Patel therefore approaches the question differently, asking Sutskever how long AI might remain \u2018very economically valuable, let\u2019s say, on the scale of airplanes\u2019 before automating substantial portions of the economy. Sutskever, finding middle ground between Cowen and Aschenbrenner, suggests this transitional, AI-as-airplanes phase might constitute \u2018a good multiyear chunk of time\u2019 that, in retrospect, \u2018may feel like it was only one or two years\u2019. Perhaps this resembles the period between 2007, when Apple introduced the iPhone, and approximately 2013, when smartphone ownership reached one billion people\u2014except this time, the newly ubiquitous technology will possess sufficient intelligence to help us invent even more technologies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The technology we cannot ignore<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">It\u2019s tempting to treat these perspectives as occupying their own separate reality, like watching a preview for a film you\u2019ll probably skip. After all, who truly knows what lies ahead? But actually, we understand quite a lot. AI already discusses and explains numerous subjects at doctoral level, predicts protein folding, programs computers, inflates cryptocurrency values, and much more. We can confidently predict significant improvement over coming years\u2014while people continuously discover applications affecting how we live, work, discover, build and create. Questions persist regarding the technology\u2019s ultimate potential and whether, philosophically speaking, it genuinely \u2018thinks\u2019 or demonstrates creativity. Nevertheless, our mental model of the next decade or two must recognise that no plausible scenario exists where AI fades into irrelevance. The question concerns degrees of technological acceleration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Even the CSIRO\u2019s Data61 division, our national science agency\u2019s digital research network, has identified AI as potentially contributing $22 trillion to the global economy by 2030. Here in Australia, the technology could add as much as $4 trillion to our economy over the next fifteen years, fundamentally transforming industries from mining to healthcare. These aren\u2019t science fiction figures\u2014they\u2019re conservative projections from some of our most credible research institutions. When Atlassian\u2019s Mike Cannon-Brookes starts investing heavily in AI startups alongside traditional software ventures, savvy business leaders take notice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">\u2018Degrees of technological acceleration\u2019 might sound like an abstract concern for research scientists or Silicon Valley entrepreneurs sipping flat whites while contemplating disruption. Yet it fundamentally represents a political matter with implications for every Australian business, educational institution, and family kitchen table conversation. Ajeya Cotra, senior adviser at Open Philanthropy, articulates a \u2018dream world\u2019 scenario featuring slower AI acceleration. In this world, \u2018the science is such that it\u2019s not that easy to radically zoom through levels of intelligence\u2019, she tells Patel. If the \u2018AI-automating-AI loop\u2019 develops gradually, she explains, \u2018then there are a lot of opportunities for society to both formally and culturally regulate\u2019 artificial intelligence applications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Cotra recognises this might not materialise. \u2018I worry that a lot of powerful things will come really quickly\u2019, she admits. The plausibility of concerning scenarios places AI researchers in an awkward position. They believe in the technology\u2019s potential and resist diminishing it; they harbour legitimate concerns about contributing to some version of an AI catastrophe; and they remain fascinated by speculative possibilities. This combination pushes AI discourse toward extremes. (\u2018If GPT-5 looks like it doesn\u2019t blow people\u2019s socks off, this is all void\u2019, Jon Y, who produces the YouTube channel \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/asianometry\">Asianometry<\/a>\u2019, tells Patel. \u2018We\u2019re just ripping bong hits\u2019.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">This framing suggests non-specialists need not participate, creating a cognitive dissonance reminiscent of how Australians sometimes approach bushfire planning\u2014we acknowledge the threat intellectually but postpone meaningful preparation until we smell smoke. Either AI fails, or it reinvents our world. Consequently, despite AI\u2019s arrival, its implications remain primarily conceptualised by technical experts. Artificial intelligence will affect everyone from Macquarie Street policymakers to mum-and-dad small business owners in Wagga Wagga, yet an AI politics has barely materialised. Understandably, civil society remains preoccupied with political and social crises centred on Donald Trump; it appears to have limited bandwidth for the technological transformation about to engulf us. If we don\u2019t engage with it, however, those creating the technology will single-handedly determine how it reshapes our lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">These individuals possess undeniable brilliance\u2014intellectual horsepower that would impress even the most hardened University of Melbourne computer science professor. Without disrespect, however, they aren\u2019t representative of broader society. They possess particular skills, affinities and values shaped by specific cultural and professional environments. Their psychological orientation toward technology\u2014what we psychologists might term their \u2018technological self-schema\u2019\u2014differs markedly from most Australians. In one of Patel\u2019s book\u2019s most revealing moments, he asks Sutskever what he plans to do after AGI emerges. Won\u2019t he feel dissatisfied living in some post-scarcity \u2018retirement home\u2019? \u2018The question of what I\u2019ll be doing or others will be doing after AGI is very tricky\u2019, Sutskever responds. \u2018Where will people find meaning?\u2019 He continues:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">My sense is that people might actually be spending a lot of time interacting with the AI systems that were created, because the AI systems will be like people, except they\u2019ll be a lot smarter. They won\u2019t have certain human flaws. So my sense is that, over time, people will find a lot of meaning in interacting with these systems because these systems will make them better on the inside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Would most people\u2014those outside computer science who haven\u2019t devoted their careers to creating AI\u2014believe they might discover life\u2019s purpose through conversing with one? Would most people think machines will make them \u2018better on the inside\u2019? These perspectives aren\u2019t inherently unreasonable (and might, surprisingly, prove accurate). But this doesn\u2019t mean such worldviews should guide our technological future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">The challenge lies in articulating alternative visions\u2014perspectives that forcefully express what we want from AI and what we reject\u2014requires serious, broadly humanistic intellectual work spanning politics, economics, psychology, art, and religion. Time for this work rapidly diminishes. Those outside AI development must now join the conversation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">What qualities do we value in people and society? Where should AI assist us, and when should it remain uninvolved? Will we consider AI successful or failing if it replaces schools with screens? What about substituting itself for established institutions\u2014universities, governments, professions? If AI becomes friend, confidant, or romantic partner, does it cross boundaries, and why? How might it affect our cognitive development, interpersonal relationships, and collective decision-making processes? Psychological research on human-computer interaction suggests that our relationships with intelligent machines involve complex attribution processes and emotional responses that merit deeper exploration (Nass &amp; Moon, 2000).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Perhaps AI\u2019s success might be measured by how effectively it restores balance to our politics and stability to our lives, or by how it strengthens institutions it might otherwise undermine. Perhaps its failure appears in how thoroughly it diminishes the value of human minds and freedom. The psychological concept of \u2018technological self-efficacy\u2019\u2014our confidence in mastering and directing technological tools\u2014becomes particularly relevant as systems grow increasingly autonomous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">For Australian organisations from the Commonwealth Bank to Woolworths, the coming transformation demands strategic foresight beyond quarterly planning cycles. Business leaders must develop what organisational psychologists call \u2018anticipatory awareness\u2019\u2014the capacity to envision and prepare for disruptive change before it materialises fully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Regardless, controlling AI requires debating and establishing new human values which, previously, we haven\u2019t needed to specify. Otherwise, we surrender our future to individuals primarily concerned with whether their technology functions, and how quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Explore real-world applications of AI, from property valuation to societal transformation. The post highlights AI\u2019s rapid advancements, its disruptive potential in industries, and the critical need for societal involvement in shaping its ethical and practical integration to ensure balanced progress<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10323,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[165,131],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[306],"class_list":["post-10322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-artificial-intelligence","category-psychology"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>When artificial intelligence gets real - Surprisingly Lee Hopkins<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore AI&#039;s real-world impact, advancements, and societal challenges. 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